A catastrophe caused by climate change is seen as the biggest potential threat to the global economy in 2016, according to a survey of 750 experts conducted by the World Economic Forum.

The annual assessment of risks conducted by the WEF before its annual meeting in Davos on 20-23 January showed that global warming had catapulted its way to the top of the list of concerns.

A failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation was seen as likely to have a bigger impact than the spread of weapons of mass destruction, water crises, mass involuntary migration and a severe energy price shock – the first time in the 11 years of the Global Risks report that the environment has been in first place.

The report, prepared by the WEF in collaboration with risk specialists Marsh & McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group, comes a month after the deal signed in Paris to reduce carbon emissions. The WEF said evidence was mounting that inter-connections between risks were becoming stronger. It cited links between climate change and involuntary migration or international security, noting that these often had “major and unpredictable impacts”.

Espen Barth Eide, the WEF’s head of geopolitical affairs, said there was a risk of Europe fragmenting as a result of “people on the move”.

Speaking at a press conference in London to launch the report, Eide said: “I am concerned about the continued support in national politics for keeping Europe together.”

Eide added that if enough countries decided to pursue a non-integrated approach to coping with migration it would have “profound effects on Europe’s politics and its economy”, and would have a knock-on impact on the rest of the world. “If things unravel at the core, what does it mean in other parts of the world?”

Cecilia Reyes, Zurich’s chief risk officer, said:

“Climate change is exacerbating more risks than ever before in terms of water crises, food shortages, constrained economic growth, weaker societal cohesion and increased security risks.
 

“Meanwhile, geopolitical instability is exposing businesses to cancelled projects, revoked licences, interrupted production, damaged assets and restricted movement of funds across borders. These political conflicts are in turn making the challenge of climate change all the more insurmountable – reducing the potential for political cooperation, as well as diverting resource, innovation and time away from climate change resilience and prevention.”

The WEF said the broad range of risks – from environmental to geopolitical and economic – was unprecedented.

It added that risks appeared to be rising, with global average surface temperatures increasing by more than 1C over pre-industrial levels for the first time, and the number of forcibly displaced people at 59.5 million – almost 50% more than in 1940, when the second world war was being fought. “Data from the report appears to support the increased likelihood of risks across the board, with all 24 of the risks continuously measured since 2014 having increased their likelihood scores in the past three years,” the WEF said.

When asked which risk was most likely to materialise in 2016, respondents chose large-scale involuntary migration. This follows last year’s refugee crisis, in which hundreds of thousands of people arrived in Europe fleeing conflicts in the Middle East and north Africa.

This was followed by extreme weather events, climate change, interstate conflict with regional consequences, and major natural catastrophes.

“Events such as Europe’s refugee crisis and terrorist attacks have raised global political instability to its highest level since the cold war,” said John Drzik, president of Marsh Global Risk and Specialties.

“This is widening the backdrop of uncertainty against which international firms will increasingly be forced to make their strategic decisions. The need for business leaders to consider the implications of these risks on their firm’s footprint, reputation and supply chain has never been more pressing.”

Drzik said at the press conference: “Most risks are rising. It’s a riskier world right now.”

From November 30 to December 11, Leaders of different countries converge for the 2015 Paris Climate Conference or COP21, and Philippines is one of the 195 participating countries. President Aquino calls for unity against climate change.

But, what is it for us? What is this good for?

Unless living on Earth means nothing to you and you are unconcerned about its fate, then you should be paying attention to this critical event.

But what is COP21 and what is its relevance to our life in this planet?

Here are five things to help you out.

What is COP21?

 

The Conference of Parties (COP) is an annual meeting which gathers parties to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCC).

In the meetings, the countries discuss and monitor international action against climate change.

This year’s meeting in Paris is the 21st, hence COP21. It will be held until December 11 in Le Bourget, France.

Since the first COP in Berlin in 1995, the meetings have adopted significant agreements. The Kyoto Protocol was created during COP3 in 1997, while COP11 in 2005 produced the Montreal Action Plan.

Close to 50,000 participants, half of whom are official delegates from government, are attending the event this year.

 

What is at stake at COP21?

 

Unlike previous meetings, the 2015 Paris Climate Conference aims to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate. This is a first in over 20 years of UN negotiations.

The target is to keep global warming below 2°C by the end of this century.

 

Why below 2°C?

 

Some scientists say that an Earth warmer by 2°C has grave consequences.

We can expect extreme weather if the planet is 2°C hotter. A 2011 study by the U.S. National Research Council says that hurricane intensity will increase by 2 to 8 percent.

Rainfall is predicted to decline by 20 to 40 percent in the Middle East and North Africa, reducing agricultural productivity, a 2014 World Bank report says.

Meanwhile, it added that up to 90 percent of Andes glaciers will melt, which will result in freshwater shortages and flooding in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Sea level rise due to the increase in temperature also endangers coastal communities, and threatens to wipe Marshall Islands off the map.

Some even say that climate change contributes to violence and war, calling it a “threat multiplier.” This means that throwing its effects into the equation can drive up conflict in already economically and socially unstable countries.

 

What is the challenge?

 

Keeping the temperature below the 2°C limit, however, is a tough challenge as the planet is already warmer by 0.8°C compared to pre-industrial levels, the World Bank says.

And if current policies continue, there is about a 40 percent chance of exceeding 4°C by 2100 and a 10 percent chance of exceeding 5°C.

The Kyoto Protocol, an agreement which commits its parties to reduce global carbon emissions, will expire in 2020. With this, attendees of COP21 need to have a new agreement, which will begin once the protocol runs out.

To enable long-term change, commitments of the parties, especially the largest emitters like the U.S. and China, must be discussed.

Negotiations are expected to tackle financial issues as well. In the 2009 conference in Copenhagen and the 2010 conference in Cancún, developed countries made a commitment to raise $100 billion per year by 2020 “to help developing countries cope with climate change,” the United Nations Conference on Climate Change said.

 

What are the commitments of the Philippines?

 

The Philippines is the fourth most disaster-prone country in the world, according to a two decade study of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) and the Centre on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).

From 1995 to 2015, the country has endured 274 natural calamities, affecting 130 million people.

Among the commitments of the Philippines to address climate change is to reduce carbon emissions by 70% by 2030, as stated in its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) submitted to the UNFCCC last October.

The reduction will come from the country’s energy, transport, waste, forestry and industry sectors.

CCC Commissioner Emmanuel de Guzman, on the other hand, calls for a lower global warming target of less than 1.5°C.

Based on decades of scientific research, sea levels have been rising worldwide at a rate of 3.5 millimeters (0.14 inches) every year since 1990. At this rate, Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) it is projected to rise by about 1 meter over the next 90 years, and 3 meters more in the following century.

Over the centuries, low lying cities have developed impressive array of water defense systems, including dikes, dams, ditches, water locks and barriers. and in the mid-20th century, the Dutch developed a series of storm surge barriers to protect their low lying cities.

In her YouTube video featured on MinuteEarth’s channel, science journalist Emily Elert discusses how cities are coming up with creative ways in developing solutions to make them as resilient as possible. She also mentioned that engineered flood solutions are not enough to protect from storm surges, natural barriers like salt water marshes and mangroves are also effective in combination with man-made barriers.

There are also products available on the market that can protect your homes and business facilities from flood waters. German engineers from Flood Control Asia RS developed demountable flood barriers and flood gates. Their proven technology has used in many applications worldwide for more that 25 years. Dutch engineers are designing floating homes and shopping centers that can bob along rising seas. Inventors in the UK have developed thirsty concrete, capable of soaking up 600 liters of water every minute and funneling it away.

Collective weather and disaster data are also essential for urban planning especially in dealing with floods. They should rely on models to where storms may likely to hit and visualize where evacuations might needed to occur.

The bottom line, resilience is the key for modern cities to survive the global sea level rise. People should think of better ways and ideas to flow out faster than the water can flow in.

These past days, or more exactly – nights, gave us the experience of the most horrendous traffic situation in recent months. What made it worse is that the traffic jam came almost unexpectedly. There were the usual rains and thunderstorms but people weren’t expecting flood to come right after, especially in the middle of the night when traffic is usually light.

Now people are asking who’s to blame? Which government agency is on top of the situation?

It seems that the “grand plan” meant to alleviate the worsening traffic situation in the Metro has some critical and unforeseen complications causing unimaginable inconvenience not only to motorists but to pedestrians and commuters as well.

 

by the Floodwader, illustration by Badz

I am flooded. Again. What a mess!

And it happens again and again. Each flood comes with this incredible mess. Incredible and costly mess!

But what can I do?

… nothing!

That is not TRUE.

“ Do not listen to other people”.

While it is true that we can not control flood, there is something that we can do — that is to protect ourselves. Most people simply just do not know how. I will tell you how it works, and how it can be done.

But first let us have a look at what can really help you when heavy rain comes.

1. Nobody knows your place better than you do. It is where you live, and it is where you work.

How was your place affected the last time when a heavy rainfall came? Do you still remember? How long did it take until you were flooded?

Most of the time the rainfall is predictable.

But never expect that to be the same as the last time.

“ Expect for the flooding to become worse.

That means that you will be affected worse than the last time. Are you prepared for that?

What is the expected water level? How many centimeters or inches did the water level increase last time? Add a reasonable height and you get at least an idea of how high the water level will increase next time. For example: If the last water level was 1.50m, add 30%. The expected water level next time will be at 1.95m. Make it 2m and you should have a realistic and safe estimate.

2. What are the worst impacts of a flood disaster?

People want to keep their houses dry, protected against water and mud.

Factory owners want to secure their factories and warehouses against water and mud.

Shop owners want to secure their shops, offices, hotels against water and mud.

The Government want to secure its buildings; its offices, the universities, schools, hospitals, and even the fire department.

Everyone wants to be protected — to be real safe and dry in times of flood.

“And everyone wants to keep their loved ones, employees, workers, clients safe and secured.

Ultimately, a safe building is the one that can also protect its residents.

The question now is: How can it be achieved? As I have said earlier that there are existing solutions “on the market”. That does not mean it is expensive.

If you want to travel from “A” to “B” you can do this the expensive way by taking a private car. But do not forget to buy the car first and fill it up with gasoline before you start your journey.

Another way is, you can take a bicycle which is by all means cheaper. Buy the bike first, pump up the tires and pedal away using your muscle power.

Lastly, you can simply walk! Use your feet. It is the cheapest way to get to any destination. You would need more shoes from time to time though.

Did you reach your destination point within the allotted travel time and more importantly, did you get there when you need to be there?

Therefore, I conclude: You will need money in every single move for whatever choice you make: whether you take the car, the bicycle, or even if you just choose to walk. And sometimes you do not get what you were expecting. Sometimes you arrive earlier – much faster when you use the car, than when you just walk.

…but then sometimes, it can be the other way around, when you drive via EDSA in Manila on a working day 🙂

“ Everything has its price and its value.

In this case, value is the protection of your house, your hotel, your factory, your school – your building!

3. There is an existing Flood protection solution!

Do you sometimes dream, from time to time, of how nice it would be if there were no flood anymore? The time when your building will not be affected by flood again and again?

“ There will be no more big mess again inside your place.

What a wonderful dream!

You may think now that this flood control solution is only for the rich.

Yes, of course, because in a way it is easier to do something when you have money . But you can also do something even when you are not that rich.

What is it?

1. You can be aware.
2. You can be attentive.
3. You can take initiative.

to 1.: You can be aware.

But step by step.

“Awareness” means not only being conscious of what’s happening around you, but more importantly, “Awareness” means that you do something– you have to take action. You can for instances meet with your neighbors and discuss the situation. Your neighbors are most likely to be in the same situation as you are. Talk about your common experiences and plan a course of action – think of what you can do, as a community to protect yourselves against flooding.

“You are aware now.

Great! That is the first step. Congratulations.

to 2.:You can be attentive.

You can be alert and you can observe what the local government is doing. You can observe what the residents are doing.

You can observe what is in the news; on tv, over the radio, and on the newspapers. And finally you can observe the latest news over the internet.

Today you can find EVERYTHING on the internet. Be honest to yourself: How much time do you spend on Facebook, and other forms of social media every day? How much time do you spend on sending messages and sharing photos and funny videos?

“And how much time do you spend in getting information on how you can avoid being flooded?

to 3.: You can take the initiative.

I am sure you have heard comments from other people that you cannot do anything to prevent flooding, and that the damage caused by it can be very devastating, and very expensive?

I have to say that is not absolutely true.

I can tell you, I have good news for you!

If your neighbors or your barangay chairman (here in the Philippines), or your Mayor or your Governor or your Congressman or your Senator are not doing anything, it does not follow that you don’t do anything also.

In Germany it took more than 10 years before the people realized that there is a good solution against flooding. This solution was only made available in 1990.

So, what did the people do before that?

I tell you what they did: While they were changing their minds. They were changing their ideas. They shared ideas among themselves. And all those times they got flooded, they got flooded, and they got flooded. Over and over, again and again.

Until one day, they decided that they’ve had enough flood!

“Don’t wait for 10 years. The Germans already did that for you!”

What does it mean, “the Germans did it already for you?” It means that t based on their collective experience, flood control solutions were developed and improved through time, its prices have been made affordable to a wider range of market, everything became easier. And in the end the buildings have become more and more protected against flood.

You just have to take benefit of it. Just learn from what they do, copy them, if you have to. They allow it. You dont have to “reinvent the wheel.” Be smart and use the existing flood control solutions.

4. Which flood protection solution is the right one for you?

I can give you an overview about existing technical flood control solutions. But I think you would become lazy when I do so. It would be better for you if you do the first step on your own. Otherwise it will not really help you.

“ Do the first step on your own.

But before you start searching it can help that you read again what I wrote above. And then try to answer carefully the questions I will ask you. Start discussing. That is awareness. That is the first step. You can not move to the second step without completing the initial one.

My question to you is:

“What will you do NOW?

I know what I should do now.